Conservation priorities and early warnings of national mammal loss in Jordan within a lost species framework

Abstract

Extinction is often preceded by progressive range contraction and population decline, yet species may remain undetected for extended periods before confirmed disappearance. At the national scale, distinguishing between confirmed historical extirpation and recent non-detection is essential for effective conservation prioritization. This study adopts a two-tier analytical approach for Jordan’s mammalian fauna. First, it compiles and reviews historical, archaeological, and paleontological evidence to identify taxa that have been extirpated with relatively high confidence from the Early Pleistocene through the twentieth century. Second, it applies a standardized lost species framework, using a ≥10-year threshold for taxa without verified wild records, to systematically screen extant mammalian taxa for recent non-detection and potential national loss. For the latter assessment, all species listed in the National Red Data Book of Mammals in Jordan were evaluated based on their most recent documented occurrence using published literature, museum records, and confirmed field observations. Results indicate that 22 mammalian taxa are historically extirpated, representing long-term and largely irreversible national losses. In contrast, seven taxa, Gazella gazella, Nesokia indica, Gerbillus andersoni, Lutra lutra, Capreolus capreolus (reintroduced population), Gazella dorcas, and Gazella marica, meet the criteria for being nationally lost, reflecting recent absence of verified detections rather than confirmed disappearance. Six of the seven nationally lost taxa are classified as Critically Endangered, indicating strong concordance between national extinction risk and recent non-detection. By explicitly separating historical extirpations from recently undetected taxa, this study provides an early-warning, precautionary framework that supports targeted surveys, recovery planning, habitat restoration, strengthened enforcement, and transboundary coordination, thereby helping to prevent additional species from progressing toward irreversible national extinction